All talk, no train
All this week I've been trying not to write about HS2, and yet here we are.
The Tory Party Conference starts in Manchester on Sunday, and what better way to celebrate than by cancelling a major rail project to the city.
I've heard they've also got a fringe event planned where they'll be burning effigies of Matt Busby and a karaoke night where you can butcher Smiths songs.
There can scarcely be a better indicator for the state of the Tory Party than the simple fact there's genuinely about a 75% chance that by Wednesday we'll have seen a video of Thérèse Coffey, cigar in hand, duetting on ‘Heaven Knows I'm Miserable Now’ with Michael Gove.
I wish I was joking. I really do.
Check back next week to see how close we get.
But anyway, what of HS2?
In the last ten years, while we’ve been talking about 140 miles of high speed line between London and Birmingham, France has constructed 350 miles of new high speed lines.
This week I went back to hook out the original strategic case for HS2, published in 2013.
As you can see, back then we were talking about a Y-shaped route, with upgrades to the existing lines beyond that to ensure that high speed trains could travel from London into Glasgow up the west coast and Edinburgh up the east.
Since then, we’ve trimmed away at the plans - and at the benefits - as the eastern leg, from Birmingham to Leeds via Sheffield, has been cut and the western leg, to Manchester and Crewe, is currently under threat.
Even more ridiculously, the integrity of the Birmingham to London stretch is in question, as the government is exploring terminating HS2 at Old Oak Common, six miles from Euston.
I don’t know if you’ve been to Euston recently, but they’ve dug a bloody massive hole in the middle of the city to get ready for HS2 - is this a giant Keynesian stimulus project? Dig the hole then fill it back in?
As it is, high speed trains now aren’t expected at Euston until 2041. I have a four year old, so I can look forward to attending his university graduation before I get on a high speed train at a genuine central London terminus.
HS2 is poorly named, and poorly sold - it’s not about speed so much as it’s about capacity. You can see that in the second of the images above - there are pinch points in our rail network where capacity is under high pressure. Many of these are around northern cities, or on stretches of the line with no alternatives around them - Grantham, or anywhere north of York on the East Coast Mainline through Darlo, Newcastle and on to Edinburgh.
Capacity and resilience is what our rail network desperately needs, and what HS2 (in full) would provide.
The alternative being offered is investment in buses, trams, and in the loose concept that is Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR).
The first two are local transport interventions - much needed and required, but not doing the same thing as HS2 - and the third is upgrades to existing lines.
I have two thoughts on that.
The first is these are not either/or propositions - the north needs both investment in local and existing infrastructure, and big new connectivity projects.
The second thought is why should we trust any of this? NPR has been launched to much fanfare several times, just as HS2 has been confirmed and reconfirmed and re-reconfirmed. Buses have been subject to multiple ‘revolutions’ and ‘step changes’ in funding provision.
It’s very easy to announce things. Make the speech. Write the press release. It’s another thing altogether to actually deliver big, necessary projects.
That’s not just true of HS2, it’s true of everything - we seem to have completely forgotten how to finish things in this country.
Creative industries account for 1% of North East FDI
Now for something completely different.
The Creative Industries Policy and Evidence Centre, which is run in partnership by Newcastle Uni and the RSA, has published a paper looking at Northern England's creative industries and starting to make the case for more investment.
The paper points out creative industries account for 3% of GVA in the North, but close to 10% in London and the South East.
As an export-intensive industry, and one which is a major employer and a big draw for foreign investment, closing that gap has some big prizes associated with it.
On Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), the North East accounts for 3% of the UK total overall, but just 1% of the creative sector's FDI.
The paper identifies three areas where improvement is needed - skills to grow, access to finance and investment in innovation.
Of course, investment in the creative sector isn't restricted to the creative sector…it also creates what the paper calls ‘spillovers’. It creates a more thriving wider economy, it impacts on wellbeing, on health, on the ecosystem of related sectors around it, on inclusion, community cohesion and a sense of place, identity and belonging.
Like I say, big prizes - and the potential for growth is there.
The citizens of Redcar want change, say IPPR North
A new report from IPPR North looks at regional wealth and inequality, and spoke to citizens in three parts of the country - Hastings, Stoke and Redcar - to gather evidence on what people want to see change.
The general conclusion was people want a better distribution of wealth, power and opportunity.
There’s a general sense in the report of disconnect between people and politics and policymaking, and in one section, even suggests that people “have lost a sense of what they should be able to expect from local public services”…which is a pretty depressing state of affairs.
The report also contains the traditional couple of horrific statistics about the North East - there is on average a five year healthy age gap between the North East and the South East, and average personal wealth in the North East is one-third of that in the South East.
What do the public think government’s responsibilities are?
This is national stuff rather than North East stuff, apologies, but it’s from the National Centre for Social Research, who over the course of 40 years have been asking people what role they expect government to play on certain issues.
There are some interesting findings:
68% believe it is definitely the government’s responsibility to control prices, up from 31% in 2006
53% think government should reduce income differences
55% believe taxation and spending should be increased, for context that was 62% in 1997, and 31% in 2010, back up to 60% in 2017
What I’ve been reading this week
This excellent/terrible thread on X on some poor soul’s attempts to get to Edinburgh from London - “Where is Preston? Only God and northerners know.”
This news from Generator on their partnership with EMI North, to create a new label focused on finding talent in the North East, with two full-time positions - a label manager and an A&R intern - aiming to create a new pathway into the industry for artists locally.
What’s coming up in the next week or so?
As mentioned up top, the Tory Conference starts on Sunday…so expect wild accusations and ridiculous speeches for the rest of this week (not just from the Home Sec)…but Parliament remains in recess for another couple of weeks, so no business going on there
The ONS has some experimental data on green jobs out later today, might be worth a look if that’s your thing
UK business population data also out this morning
Data on workless households in the regions out tomorrow
Revised GDP figures for Apr-Jun 23 are out on Friday morning (the first estimate had that period at 2.3% growth), any significant changes there will influence the tone of the Tory Conference
Working with me
I’m pretty much booked up for October now (news of what with will follow later next month), but I’m open for chats for November and beyond.
Things I’ve done recently for people include:
Compelling narratives to support business cases for organisations and their projects
Feature interviews, case studies, insight gathering from stakeholders, customers or your team
Stakeholder comms - both one-offs and drafts for full campaign plans
Policy briefs, key messages, policy-world horizon scanning
You can find out more about me on my website.
You can email me on worroom@substack.com or arlen@arlenpettitt.co.uk
I’m @arlenpettitt on Twitter, and you’ll find me on LinkedIn.
It's such a shame that Kit isn't one of those train boys 🚆