Mourning in America
This morning is definitely broken, plus loads of ONS stats, a Pattern interview and some events (as I try to maintain normality)
I don’t even know where to begin talking about Trump.
The true horror of it will be felt in the lives of vulnerable and marginalised people across the US, and in the geopolitical shudders across the world.
In this country, I'm always reassured by the fact that the machinery of government is slow moving and designed to chop the edges off of the worst extremes of leaders who don't actually have all that much individual power. That's not the case in the US, where the President very much holds power.
Even the occasional cursory glance at the US campaign would have revealed a twisted mess of conspiracy theories and hate-driven politics, aimed at dividing the country into believers and heathens.
It’s an alarming thing to live in a world where that still works, but at the same time, I tend to think those who are really shocked by it - especially those offering analysis and comment - haven’t been paying enough attention.
Voters might not agree with you, they might not be rational, but they do base their decisions on something.
Be it fear, anger, hate and outrage or hope, faith, altruism and optimism, there is always a motivation.
There’s a quote usually to Thomas Jefferson that you get the government you deserve.
It’s a good line, but I’m not sure it’s always completely true.
Plenty of people have voted for a squib of a government, for example, where you’d have every right to expect them to be more competent or effective than they end up being.
But where it is often true is in the values and ethos of who you’re voting for.
With Trump it’s baked in.
For all the sleight of hand and misdirection, there can’t be a single voter who doesn’t know, really know, who he is.
They know what type of person he is. They know where his loyalties lie. They know the simplistic way he approaches the world.
Part of the issue is many of the characteristics which define Trump are those which Western society celebrates, but turned up ear-bustingly loud.
His unfailing self-confidence, and seemingly total absence of reflection or self-critique, is how many people wish they could live their life.
He doesn’t overthink or he doesn’t let things stop him. He just…does.
That’s the allure.
The mistake people often make is trying to argue their way around that with facts and evidence. It just doesn’t work. The arguments against Brexit made the same error.
If you are feeling disenfranchised, marginalised and hard done by, in a society you think has let you down, then you’ll naturally gravitate towards the embodiment of the opposite of that.
If that person then echoes your experience of the world back to you, then you’re hooked: “Here’s a person who gets me, and who doesn’t let anything get in their way. They get theirs, just like I want to.”
Then we get to what might be the one remaining truth in politics: voters don’t like being made to feel stupid.
If you tell them they are being hoodwinked, they’ll double down.
If you speak over them, or drown them under the weight of evidence, they’ll resist.
Couple that with tribalism and you have a campaign strategy.
We ought to demand better, but we don’t.
I don’t suppose normal people get this, but the algorithmic gods occasionally serve me up thirty or forty year old political clips.
It’s often a powerful reminder of what good communicators we can have, whether you completely agree with them or not.
Many of these moments are seared into my brain as someone who believes in words and in their power to change things.
Reagan in 1987, standing at the Brandenberg Gate and calling on Gorbachev to “tear down this wall!”
(One of Reagan's campaign ads, “It's morning in America”, is where this newsletter’s title came from.)
Clinton accepting the Democratic nomination in 1992 closed his speech with the line “I still believe in a place called Hope.” (Hope, Arkansas being his home town).
Bush stood at Ground Zero shouting through a loudhailer when someone says they can’t hear him: “I can hear you! I can hear you! The rest of the world hears you!”
The highs of Obama’s ‘Yes, we can!’ campaign slogan, to his response to the lows of several mass shootings on his watch - “I hope you jump in rain puddles” after a Congresswoman and 18 others were shot in Tuscon, or singing Amazing Grace at a memorial in Charlston.
Blair facing down voters on Question Time, or saying in his final Party Conference speech: “They say I hate the party, and its traditions. I don't. I love this party. There's only one tradition I hated: losing.”
Cameron’s first PMQs, saying to Blair “he was the future once.”
Gordon Brown, spending a minute straight listing Labour achievements.
I cannot for the life of me think of a Trump or Biden line to go on this list, and giving people a coherent vision to be part of is important to countering the chaos.
America’s political dysfunction is obvious for the world to see, but we wear ours on our sleeve too.
There were nine Prime Ministers at the Cenotaph this weekend, including one in Liz Truss who - if she lives a long, healthy life - stands a chance of spending more time attending Rememberance Sunday services than she spent in office.
I can’t think of a May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak or Starmer line to go on that list either.
I am desperate for a lifting of political debate.
Lifting above the infighting and the gamesmanship, towards something constructive.
The maneuvering and negative briefing against Starmer began almost immediately, and the same has happened with Kemi Badenoch, as Tory Councillor and fellow long-haired policy Substacker
notes in his newsletter this week: “In government, the electorate found this intolerable. In opposition, they will find it irrelevant.”I’m not terribly optimistic the situation can improve, our politics, our electorate, our media all seem set against it…but, to quote Robert Browning, “a man’s reach should exceed his grasp”.
Data on hybrid workers
It’s basically impossible to go on LinkedIn without seeing a post which reads something like:
”RIGHT! I’m calling it: remote working is over. Everyone at The We Sell Potted Plants and Widgets Company is back in the office FULL TIME starting NEXT WEEK! We simply aren’t as creative and agile when we’re apart, and while profits are up and so is staff retention that’s probably unrelated to the remote work thing, and also my wife left me :-( and I’m pretty lonely now :’-((, so I want some people to hang around with!! *ROCKET SHIP EMOJI*”
Unfortunately LinkedIn are yet to add a *shrug* reaction, so I tend to just ignore it.
Clearly there are arguments on both sides of the remote and office-based argument, but lots of it comes down to the type of workforce you have and also the type of work.
Again, clearly, there are types of work which require you to be in a set place at a set time, but nationally just 44% of people travel to work every day, according to the ONS.
Although only 13% are fully work from home, 28% are hybrid workers.
The pattern though is that if you are over 30, a manager, and a parent, you are more likely to work from home - which is fairly self-explanatory…you are more senior, you have some role autonomy, and you have a need for greater flexibility and stealing back time from your commute. That tends to correlate to a higher level of qualification too.
There’s also the expected split between those in senior or professional services type roles, and those who do, you know, actual work in sectors like healthcare, retail, hospitality, manufacturing and construction.
What does this mean for the North East? Well, we have a far larger manufacturing sector, a larger health and social care sector, and a smaller professional and technical sector than the UK average.
In the period across the pandemic 2019-22, homeworking and flexible working were both reported to be lower in the North East than the national average.
Maybe the Potted Plant and Widget Company guy wasn’t completely wrong…but I still don’t think it’s going away.
Which skills are needed where you are?
Ever wondered what’s going on in the jobs market where you are…well the ONS have gathered a load of online jobs postings and compiled the data.
It’s interesting, but it’s 100% a flawed measure.
Some examples…
In Northumberland 7% of all jobs ads are for “Authors, writers and translators”, more than care workers (5.2%) and teaching assistants (2.6%).
Now, Northumberland is undoubtedly an inspirational place, full of literature of every language…but it definitely needs more care workers than it does writers and translators.
North Tyneside, by comparison, is looking for care workers (4.3%) above anything else. That won’t reflect the large number of people who live in North Tyneside, but work in Newcastle, or through the tunnel in Sunderland.
It’s interesting anyway, even if not fully representative.
Jobs stats
There's a narrative going around that the rise in the employer’s bit of National Insurance will cause unemployment to rise, by driving up the cost of staff.
I don't know. The labour market has been ridiculously robust, riding out the pandemic (and the end of the furlough scheme) and double-digit inflation without ever showing the massive rise in unemployment you might have expected.
As it is, unemployment is up just slightly in the three months to September.
Nationally it's at 4.3% (+0.1), while in the North East it's at 5.5% (+0.9). Both is those are up on the same period a year ago too, so it's not just a seasonal thing.
Economic inactivity is still what worries me more, and although it's going in the right direction, it's still at too high a level.
Let's wait and see what the measures in the Budget do in reality, because I'm not sure anyone can accurately forecast what's going to happen…but I don't think unemployment will leap up, not just because of NICs anyway.
Interview with Alison Dunn, CEO of Citizens Advice Gateshead and Society Matters CIC
I recently sat with Alison Dunn for Pattern, and we spoke about how a sense of social justice has kept her motivated throughout her career.
“I never get sick of drawing my sword. I mean, honestly, I'm probably very annoying because I just get up every day and I'm ready for it. Absolutely ready for it.”
Upcoming events…
McBryde & Co are hosting an event on the use of AI in marketing, design and PR on the morning of 20th November in Newcastle, with speakers from Northumbria Uni, Newcastle United and Idea Junkies. It’s an interesting topic, and I don’t think people in those industries can run / bury their heads in the sand on AI, they need to understand it and adapt to it…and work out how to use it to be better at what they do. I’m sure the .discussion will be great, you can see the full details and register here.
Pattern are hosting a slow networking / co-working day tomorrow…I’ve no idea if there are still spaces available, but I’m going to be honest with you, I’ve never seen Chris take a register, so I think you’ll be able to drop in if you fancy it. You can take a look at the details here.
Working with me
I'm available for the usual chats about possible projects.
You'll find me on arlen@arlenpettitt.co.uk.
I was at Wizu yesterday for the slow networking - didn't get chance to say hello. Really enjoyed it.