It was former New York Governor Mario Cuomo who said that “you campaign in poetry, you govern in prose”.
It's a great phrase which explains what happens when plans meet reality.
I think what we've seen in the past week and a half is what happens if you attempt to stick to your poetic plans despite reality.
The immediate fallout from the mini-not-Budget dominated the news during Labour's Party Conference, and the crescendo of dissent which led to the U-turn on the 45p Addition Rate has dominated the Tory Conference.
That’s a remarkable achievement, to drown out two events designed to focus attention.
It's testament to the power of words when you're in one of the Great Offices of State…even if you change your mind, people won't easily forget what you've said.
Hence this week's newsletter soundtrack:
This Wor Room post is public so feel free to share it.
First, a brief stop in Liverpool for the last week's Labour Conference, as with everything that was going on, I didn't get a chance to mention it in last week's newsletter.
This feels like a necessary bit of reconciliation, as defending your record in government is fairly crucial to credibly asking for votes next time. And part of general change of tone too.
But, the policies unveiled weren't themselves very Blair.
Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves got most of the eye-catching announcements, including extra medical student places, extra nurses, plans for a publicly owned energy provider, nationalised railways and a green-investing sovereign wealth fund.
Starmer mostly told his own story - still introducing himself to the public as polls show new interest - but did join some dots with a Green Prosperity Plan, a promise to scrap business rates, and a pledge to target 70% home ownership.
The North East Angle - most prominently, Teesside got a mention regarding offshore wind. Clean Energy is a big sector for Teesside, with the Net Zero Teesside programme aiming to create 25,000 jobs.
The broader structural issues mentioned (i.e. housing and business rates) are significant for the region too. On business rates specifically, it’s an under-appreciated lever for Levelling Up, as not only is it a barrier to business start-ups, it’s also a tool for shaping investment and local public sector spending. It’s a big issue the business groups campaign on.
Generally though, given Labour’s giant lead in the polls (33% lead with YouGov, 21% with Survation, 19% with Opinium, 25% SavantaComRes - all via Britain Elects), it pays to start giving the detail of what they’re saying a bit more attention.
Tory Conference: “What a day!”
BONUS SUB-SECTION SOUNDTRACK:
The Tory Conference is still going on in Birmingham, with the Prime Minister due to speak today and is expected to rally the troops and reassure them that the disruption is worth it for change.
I mentioned in last week’s newsletter that a bit of a bellwether would be the response the Government received when it descended on the West Midlands.
Kwasi Kwarteng summed up the tone in the first few lines of his speech on Monday - “What a day",” he said, referring to the U-turn he’d been forced to perform on the Additional Rate of income tax.
It was lack of support which done for it, rather than a change of heart about the merits of the policy itself, with an increasing number of influential Conservative voices coming out against it, and some beginning to predict that the Government would lose a vote on it.
One of those voices was Michael Gove, a man known for having strong opinions.
(See me shoehorning that in? Any excuse to share my favourite cartoon ever…)
Various Cabinet Members have also voiced various strong opinions of their own in various different directions on things like benefit cuts, the 45p rate U-turn and what constitutes a coup. It's not felt particularly well disciplined, to say the least.
There was an apparent second win for the dissidents, with the Chancellor seeming to suggest he’d move forward his ‘mid-term fiscal plan’ statement. This was reported on Monday night as a move to calm markets, but then on Tuesday he said it would be on 23rd November after all, before it then being confirmed it probably would be this month. Steady and predictable, just how the markets like it.
The North East Angle - a bit of good news first. Dualling of the A1 was included in a list of priorities in Transport Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan's conference speech.
Despite the 45p rate Income Tax U-turn, there are still massive tax cuts coming, as the Additional Rate accounts for about £2bn of the overall £45bn-ish package. And with those tax cuts - we can assume - there will be massive spending cuts. The Resolution Foundation predicts something on the scale of George Osborne’s austerity programme.
This is not good news for a region like the North East which has higher than average public sector employment (21.3% compared to 17.5% across the UK - ONS).
It’s also worth noting that, against the backdrop of austerity, it took ten years for the North East to recover to pre-Financial Crisis levels of unemployment. It had also just barely reached pre-crisis levels of GVA per head before the pandemic (data again via the ONS).
Dull Poets Society
I hope you'll forgive me a bit of editorialising here.
With the scale of what's coming, we're talking about another lost decade for the North East. But, how many decades can one region afford to lose? Should we be happy with the odd good year? With the odd piece of good news? A few jobs here, a new roundabout there? All the while we're watching child poverty rates tick up and healthy life expectancy tick down.
Name a metric and the North East is invariably at the wrong end of the table: education; pay; unemployment; R&D; business start-up rates; transport spending; obesity; cancer; smoking; alcohol dependency; even suicide.
These are generational problems, not well suited to press conference politics. Headlines are easy, but delivery is hard, slow and unglamorous.
Between referenda, leadership contests and General Elections, we've had a politics stuck in campaign mode for all but three of the last nine years. Only one of those years - 2018 - could remotely be considered ‘normal', and we were in the throes of Brexit negotiations.
The result has been government after government of dull, uninspired poets who have forgotten how to write prose.
I like prose. And I miss it.
Stat of the week
97,900
The number of 'economically inactive' people in the North East who want a job. A hidden figure 1.6 times the official unemployment figure.
This Wor Room post is public so feel free to share it.
This piece by North East-based writer and editor Edie Miller on our extremely broken childcare system(some people would question the logic of putting links to better and more interesting writers than you in your newsletter, not me though, I bask in their written glow)
This Don McRae interview in the Guardian with North Easterner Jill Scott, which mentions her time coaching at Gateshead College, and an interesting tie-up with Starling Bank to support grassroots women’s football. There’s definitely a new model of activism from high profile people, leveraging their position and their networks to support things they feel passionate about, and that tie-up is a good example
This new platform coming soon from photographer Chris Owens. Chris is responsible for half of North East LinkedIn’s profile pics, so this must be part of his landgrab for the rest. Something to follow and keep an eye out for:
What’s in the Prime Minister’s speech this afternoon - I’d guess it’ll be similar to Starmer’s and heavy on story and light on policy, in that she too needs to introduce herself to the wider electorate
There’s business insolvency data, relating to energy prices, due on Friday
There are also some productivity numbers due, also on Friday
Next week will see new employment figures, on Tuesday 11th Oct
Movement on broader North East devolution, due by mid-October
There are rumours of progress with the EU on some of the Brexit-related issues in Northern Ireland, which we might hear more about once the Tory Conference is over
Feedback and finding me
This is a work in progress, so let me know your feedback and any issues you’d like to see covered.
You should be able to email me on worroom@substack.com.
