Reform, Regional GDP and Mortality
A return to the usual newsletter format this week
I’m back.
Thank you again to my very able stand-ins
and , as well as to last week’s guest writer. Please do go back into the Wor Room archive and take a look at the posts if you missed them.Quite a lot has changed since I last wrote a proper newsletter, not least as the result of the local elections last week.
Reform took control of Durham, are now a close second in Northumberland (don’t rule out that one changing hands at some point), and came within 500 votes of taking the elected mayor role in North Tyneside. That last one would have resulted in the slightly ridiculous scenario of a Reform mayor attempting to run a council where 51 of the 60 seats were Labour.
As is depressingly often the case, the North East gets national headlines when the rest of the country can point and go “EW, LOOK AT THAT!”, and so it is with Durham.
The county has become a bit of an ugly poster child for the Reform surge, not helped by Nigel Farage’s remarks on diversity and inclusion and homeworking.
As many people have pointed out, that’s somewhat ironic given Farage’s own reluctance to turn up to work - he’s voted 57 times in the Commons since he was elected last year, out of a possible 186 divisions.
It’s a work ethic he’s long demonstrated, not least as an MEP when he ranked 745th out of 746 in his attendance at votes. He still intends to take his MEP’s pension though, naturally.
The narrative that’s built around this is of the public giving both Labour and the Tories a kicking, and Reform building momentum across the country.
However, the tough stuff for Reform isn't ‘building momentum’ or getting headlines, it's the dirty business of compromise and dull administration. There are no prizes for flashiness in local government, in fact, there are no prizes at all - there are plenty of pitfalls and potholes though, and no money.
There's no greater risk to Reform's general election prospects than spending the next four years having to make sure the bins get emptied in your local park, or that the utility provider who just dug up the pedestrian crossing hits their SLA timeline, or that the school with falling pupil numbers stays open, or that there are no child safeguarding failures on your watch, or that there are enough new homes, or that you don't blow through your adult social care budget in the first three months of the year.
It’s hard, and people notice when it goes wrong.
Regional GDP (from 2023)
The latest figures for regional GDP were out in April, although they cover 2023, so will already be a bit detached from reality.
In the North East, our economy was worth £77.5bn, which is the smallest for an English regions, and the lowest per head figure for the whole of the UK.
That per head figure was £28,583, nearly £11,000 below the UK average of £39,403.
However, we had a fairly strong (by modern terms) real terms growth of 0.5%, and the fact our population doesn't grow as quickly as the rest of the country means our per head figure didn't fall asleep much as elsewhere.
Split by Combined Authority, the NECA area is worth £58.6bn a year, while TVCA is worth £18.9bn. While NECA grew 0.6% in real terms, the Tees Valley saw a contraction of -3.8%, the worst of any Combined Authority area.
Avoidable mortality
Some cheerful figures have been published on avoidable mortality, again for 2023.
There's a strong link to deprivation to these numbers, which looks at deaths before age 75 from health issues which were preventable or treatable with timely and effective intervention.
Nationally, that accounts for around one in five deaths (21.6% in England), the equivalent of 237.8 deaths per 100,000.
In the North East, that figure is higher at 298.8 deaths per 100,000.
The stats release goes on to explore the link to deprivation and inequality, and look at the sorts of conditions which are causing these avoidable deaths.
How active are we?
Last month, Sport England released a report looking at how active we are as a nation.
The report as a whole talks about positive progress that has been made, and the 2.4 million extra people who are now regularly active compared to a few years ago.
However, it also talks about the barriers to activity and what needs to happen to remove some of those - both in Sport England’s remit and outside it.
There are some regional comparisons, and we can see the Norht East sits towards the bottom end…although really, not that different to most of the North and the Midlands.
I’m going to go ahead and say that’s because of affluence, access to facilities, likelihood of living with a disability and a whole range of other factors which limit economic growth as well as the ability to live an active life.
Northumbria University for Pattern
Pattern recently collaborated with Northumbria University on a pair of pieces looking at the relationship between business and higher education.
First, in Pattern's Go See section, a profile of Dr Matt Sutherland, who has a specialism in, and passion for, knowledge exchange. Find out about Matt’s unusual role, where as well as being a teaching academic he's also on the road regularly visiting other institutions, and encouraging researchers to get out and talk about their work.
Second, and more in-depth, a feature on the university’s Centre for Digital Supply Chain Excellence. Speaking to the Centre's Director Prof Ali Shokri, and the convener of its research group Dr Adrian Small, I had the chance to find out how they see technology making businesses greener, more efficient and more profitable.
There's a really significant shift which has happened in higher education in the last decade or so, where real world impact is an expected part of the package. However…not that many academics do outreach well, or know how to speak the language of business when someone walks through the institution's gates. I've always found Northumbria do that pretty well.overall, and this team certainly do.
Working with me
May is just about full, but I'm booking in time during June and July.
I've ended up on a little run of projects recently which have all spanned science, education and diversity in one way or another, with varying degrees of each.
If you might have something which could either help me extend that streak, or break it with something entirely different, reach out on arlen@arlenpettitt.co.uk.
Really good post. The first person I have read who has addressed the impact of Reform on mayors, even if it was a ‘What if’. Here, in Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire and neighbouring Doncaster we have Labour mayors who now have to work with Reform majorities. It is even likely to impact on the composition of planned local government reorganisation. I have yet to read anything on these questions. 🐰