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Free access to The QT
I think local news is really important, which is why I write this North East-focused newsletter. It’s also why I’m so pleased to be able to contribute regularly to The QT, which is filling a void as a weekly online news magazine for the region.
It works on a subscription model, rather than the advertising-funded model of free to access sites…but that’s frustrating if you’re wanting to dip in and try it out before subscribing.
Not to worry, for I have a way for you to access the next six editions (plus everything that’s been published so far) for free!
Just click here link and register, and you’ll have free access until 27th May.
You’ll then be able to read this interview with Dr Ceri Gibson of the Tyne Rivers Trust about the health of our waterways, this piece on naval veteran Vito Ward’s 54 year wait for an apology after being dismissed for being gay, and this feature by high street’s expert Graham Soult on the lasting legacy of Woolies.
Okay, now on with the show.
The big news from the region this week came from Northumberland, where an agreement has been reached for the site formerly known as Britishvolt.
Britishvolt’s plans for a multi-billion pound facility to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles collapsed early last year, when the company itself collapsed into administration.
They mostly blamed the government’s failure to come forward with funding, but there were reports that “champagne flowed freely” as they sought other backers, so there were probably some other factors in play.
That plan, however, was expected to bring 3,000 jobs to the region, aligning not only with the UK’s pursuit of Net Zero, but also with regional strengths around the automotive sector.
The new plan involves Northumberland County Council receiving £110m for job creation schemes, and US investment firm Blackstone taking the site to develop for data centres.
Now, data centres are critical infrastructure - no one has big computing power on site anymore, it’s all held centrally by someone else instead. They are big, electricity-hungry places, and tech firms throw lots of money at getting them right - Google recently announced a $1bn investment in a data centre in Hertfordshire.
What they do not require, however, is many bodies to run them.
Property giant Jones Lang LaSalle published some research into data centres last year, claiming you need a team of 20-22 people to run a typical-sized one.
It’s estimated the data centre site in Blyth would create 1,600 direct jobs, but 1,200 of those are in construction. That may last several years, so could be classed as long term, but they aren't permanent sector-growing jobs.
So, developing the site = good; money for the council = good; some jobs = good…but it’s not a transformative, industrial linchpin that you can point to as part of a regional economic strategy.
On the theme of jobs
The latest ONS figures on the labour market were out yesterday morning, and they didn’t make especially good reading.
Nationally the unemployment rate was up from 3.9% in Sept-Nov 23 to 4.2% in Dec 23-Feb 24, inactivity was also up, and the employment rate was down.
In the North East, as is our wont, we have our own brand of chaotic labour market.
In the last quarter, our unemployment rate actually went down - from 4.3% to 3.6%.
However, the employment rate fell from 71.9% to 70.4%, and the economic inactivity rate leapt up from 24.9% to 26.9%.
So, despite the 0.1% GDP growth in February (aren’t we being spoiled?), I’d characterise things as remaining a bit fragile.
Campaign Mode
We’re now a little over two weeks away from the local and mayoral elections on 2nd May.
As such, if you follow any of the candidates on social media, you’ll see plenty of photos of them standing in front of street signs with beaming supporters.
In amongst all that, this video from Jamie Driscoll caught my eye.
There are three core elements to political comms - defend your record, sketch out a vision of what you’d do in post, and have a go at your opposition.
This video is a bit of a naked effort at the last of those, with a sprinkling of the first.
It attacks Kim McGuinness and her record as Police and Crime Commissioner, in particular the crime figures for the Northumbria Police region and the PCC precept on council tax bills going up.
I haven’t checked all the figures, but they look plausible, so we'll assume they're right - but, if you were telling a more generous story with them, you’d choose the per 1,000 population figures, which paint a much better picture for Northumbria Police. We’re talking about fairly small numbers of reported crimes in some categories, small enough that a handful difference can shift the percentages from below UK average to above it.
On the video itself, and its existence, I think it tells us a few things.
It makes it very clear that for Driscoll, the opposition is McGuinness, with a secondary set of bad guys in the main parties. McGuinness on the other hand, tends to reserve her criticism for the Tories nationally as the party of Government. She's not talking about local politicians much. In fact, I’m not sure I can remember her mentioning Driscoll at all in her campaign materials. This is probably sensible, given whoever wins is going to have to work with all the main parties regionally in order to get things done - best to not piss people off.
It tells us what Driscoll thinks his selling points are: that he’s a main party candidate, and that he’s competent. ‘Competence’ being what he’s asking people to vote for when they vote for him. As we talked about in this newsletter a few weeks ago, there’s really low awareness of candidates, including him as a partial incumbent / sitting mayor in the region…so there’s a lot of work needing to be done to sell that one, I think.
It tells us his campaign are looking for traction. When you’re confident and you’ve got some wind under your wings, you probably don’t bother with attacking your opponent like this. Instead, you spend all your time talking about what you’re planning to do when you’re in office.
Overall, I think this approach is a bit of a gamble for the Driscoll campaign. You maybe do something which reaches some new people, but when a core part of your offer to the electorate is that you’re ‘not like them’ it risks coming across a bit grubby. Although I’ll admit that sometimes to show you’re not like them, you do need to define who they are, and what they are doing.
One element which I don’t think will actually resonate that much is the stuff on the precept. People might have spotted the change in their charge when their council tax bills landed a few weeks ago, but they won’t remember what it was now. I also think policing, and specifically local policing, is something which people are probably quite happy to pay for. Nationally, there’s certainly a general feeling that vital public services need more money, and policing numbers are frequently quoted as an example of that.
In fact, just 3% of people think we’re spending too much money on crime and policing. So, maybe we can put that precept up even more.
What’s coming up in the next week or so?
Reaction to this morning’s inflation figures
Private rent and house price figures, out at 9.30 today
Retail sales data on Friday
Alcohol-specific deaths data for 2022, including by region, out on the 22nd - the North East will perform poorly
I’m going to be in Darlington for a spell on Monday 22nd - if there’s anyone around who fancies a coffee/a sandwich around lunchtime, drop me a line!
Pattern’s first event is next week, on the 25th - it’s fully booked, hopefully I’ll see some of you there…for everyone else, there’s a waiting list!
Over 500 subscribers
April saw this newsletter go through the 500 subscribers barrier - something which I started eyeing up on the horizon at the end of last year.
It’s an imaginary milestone, but a welcome one - thank you to everyone for signing up, and double thanks to anyone who has liked, commented or shared it anywhere. I really appreciate it.
Hopefully reading it is a useful way to spend a few minutes on a Wednesday morning.
Onwards to a thousand subscribers next!
Working with me
I’m always up for a chat about whatever you’re working on - this newsletter let’s you know plenty of what I’m about, but LinkedIn is also a good place to see the kind of work I do.
You can reach me at arlen@arlenpettitt.co.uk.
I was successful as both a candidate and an agent back in the days when you identified your vote and worked it. The opposition didn’t exist. Any mention of them just gave them free oxygen. How silly of Jamie Driscoll. I still wish him well, but it reveals a weakness that does not serve him or his campaign well. 🐰